fivethirtyeight raptor data

Again adjusted for strength of opposition. To some extent, this statistic is also capturing a team’s overall defensive performance while a player is on the floor. This is the first time all of these information sources have been combined publicly in a single metric. Changed all vignette code to no longer dynamically read data off the web, per CRAN policy on internet access. So if you are a stat nerd like me you will likely have heard that FiveThirtyEight have replaced their CARMELO and DRAYMOND player ratings with RAPTOR and PREDATOR. Other analysts may differ, but we think the medium-term future of NBA analytics is probably more about assigning value to players based on discrete actions they take on the court and less in trying to perfect an RAPM-like approach. DRAYMOND essentially treated all types of shots equally. Instead, in assigning players to positions for our depth charts, we deliberately draw from multiple sources to make most players eligible at multiple positions. Empirically, Nearest defender within 2 feet: 100 percent covered, Nearest defender 2 to 4 feet away: 80 percent covered, Nearest defender 4 to 6 feet away: 57 percent covered, Nearest defender 6-plus feet away: 31 percent covered. Note that evaluating the performance of a player’s courtmates provides for a more precise and direct way to evaluate a player’s impact than looking at his team’s overall rating while he was off the court. We determined the respective weight assigned to “Box” and “On-Off” RAPTOR ratings by testing how well they predicted RAPM out of sample. Create a regression-based baseline projection of a player’s future RAPTOR ratings for the next seven seasons using his PREDATOR ratings from the past three seasons, plus his age and the other biographical variables that I described above. On our player projection pages, you’ll also find estimated market values — for instance, a certain player is worth $120 million over the next five seasons. This data is categorized by on offense, defense, or in total. Here is an executive summary. Under game conditions, the players who participated in the 3-point contest hit so-called wide-open 3-pointers at a 44 percent rate instead. This should make intuitive sense: a team is less likely to step off the gas pedal in the postseason when where is more on the line. Fortunately, we estimate these effects to be small: Combined, they’re worth about 0.04 points per foul that’s not reflected by RAPM. Finally, RAPTOR adjusts individual players’ ratings so that they sum up to reflect the team’s overall performance, adjusted for score effects and strength of competition. In addition, score effects are considerably larger in the regular season than in the playoffs. In our various regression specifications, it was ambiguous whether a better statistical fit was produced by using all 3-point attempts or instead weighting 3-point attempts based on how closely contested they were. The precise formula that RAPTOR uses to calculate WAR is as follows…, … where the WAR multiplier is 0.0005102 for the regular season and 0.0005262 in the playoffs.26. To be listed, players must have had a minimum of 1000 minutes played between the playoffs and regular season combined. In addition, some very smart defenders (e.g., Green or Gobert) show indications of being selective about who they foul, based in part on which opponents make free throws at a high rate. RAPTOR uses this metric only for defenders that spend a lot of time on the perimeter, based on their ratio of 3-point shots to 2-point shots defended. fivethirtyeight 0.6.0. Plus-minus statistics have certain inherent limitations, and RAPTOR is subject to those, too. While all players who rely heavily on assisted baskets are penalized by this statistic, it has a particularly large effect on players such as DeAndre Jordan who camp out at the basket and depend on assisted dunks. In fact, in the predictive formulation of RAPTOR used in our projection models (PREDATOR), fouls are handled slightly differently: A defensive player still gets a deduction when an opponent that he fouled makes a free throw, but the defender actually gets a small amount of credit for committing a foul. In reconciling team and player ratings, we make bigger adjustments to players with higher offensive and defensive usage rates.24 Colloquially speaking, this means that if a team was better or worse than the sum of its parts, we give more of the credit or blame for that to the players who were most heavily involved with the offense or the defense, respectively. A defensive rebound would reduce this value to zero and end the possession; an offensive rebound would increase it to 1.2 points. The full-fledged version of RAPTOR is available for the 2013-14 season onward, as that’s when the NBA’s player-tracking data came on line. Namely, we tell our depth charts program in which order the team prioritizes its players and (based on recent news accounts) which players are injured and for how long. Our subsequent research, however, suggests that the current publicly available data on opponents’ 3-point shooting is largely noise. In fact, working on RAPTOR has convinced me that Jordan’s peak was probably a little higher than LeBron’s, something I didn’t necessarily believe before. This implies that the differences between a team’s overall scoring margin and the sum of its statistical components may actually be due mostly to luck rather than necessarily reflecting any intangible or hard-to-measure skills. It’s likely that these players hit truly wide-open shots — no defender closing out or threatening the shot in any way — at a rate greater than 44 percent. Positional opponents’ offensive rebounds: RAPTOR also accounts for how many offensive rebounds a player’s positional matchups secure. They also made the data open for anyone to download. fivethirtyeight 0.6.1. Otherwise, RAPTOR projections are essentially the same as our previous projection system, CARMELO, which is described here at some length. To this end we created the fivethirtyeight R package of data and code behind the stories and interactives at the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com. We create depth charts for each team and project playing time using a combination of algorithms and human inputs. Instead of inferring how far a team was ahead or behind based on its average final score, we calculate it directly by evaluating how far it was ahead or behind in an average possession throughout the season. The R-squared of our defensive RAPTOR regression in predicting within-sample RAPM is about 0.6, as opposed to only about 0.3 using traditional defensive statistics (steals, blocks, defensive rebounds, fouls committed) alone. 5. Steals do create additional value on offense, but this is covered by the offensive regression. Analyzing FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR Data Check out the attached project that Treasurer Ralph Good and Editor-In-Chief Noah Edwards-Thro completed for their Statistical Models Class! About: Another important difference in RAPTOR’s score effects adjustment is that it recognizes that the effects become larger in later quarters. 75 percent of lost-ball turnovers, palming turnovers, double dribbles, discontinued dribbles and step-out-of-bounds turnovers. Here’s one interesting comparison: Players make about 51 percent of 3-point attempts in the 3-point contest, when there is literally no defensive pressure (but there is time pressure). PREDATOR and RAPTOR have a 0.98 correlation on offense, and 0.95 on defense. Specifically, RAPTOR uses the following variables in its defensive regression: Steals: Steals are an example of how defensive statistics can serve as both direct and indirect measures of player value. Thus, players get a 0.04-point deduction for every foul they commit that counts toward the bonus/penalty. Posted by. 2018 House Forecast. FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. Penalty fouls committed: As described earlier, fouls have some costs (potentially putting the opposing team in the bonus and creating foul trouble) that aren’t well-measured by RAPM, although these effects are small. (We made a few adjustments to RAPM from Davis’s version to make it more appropriate for our specific needs.)4. For more detail on Approximate RAPTORS, you can find a files here that lists each player’s rating in the regular season and playoffs separately, or a version that combines a player’s performance over the whole season. FiveThirtyEight's soccer predictions calculate each team's chances of winning each match and the league title across 39 leagues. For instance, a team with a 20-point lead would be 4.6 points worse per 100 possessions in the 3rd quarter. UPDATED Oct. 11, 2020, at 10:05 PM . If a player’s “Box” rating is +3.0 and his “On-Off” rating is also +3.0, we’d exepct his overall RAPM to be slightly greater than +3.0, in other words. raptor_by_player: NBA Raptor: raptor_by_team: NBA Raptor: ratings: An Inconvenient Sequel: senators: Senator Dataset: spi_matches : Match-by-match SPI ratings and forecasts back to 2016: twitter_presidents: The Worst Tweeter in Politics Isn’t Trump: The released version of this package is hosted using a drat repository made using the the drat package. Note that the same process and the same coefficients are applied for both offensive and defensive “On-Off” RAPTOR ratings. The replacement level estimate is derived from evaluating the historical performance of players on two-way contracts, who are quite literally on the fringes between the major and minor leagues (the NBA and the G League), a status that reflects the traditional definition of replacement-level players. 538 introduced their new RAPTOR rating system today. The dataset is a data frame with 16,541 rows representing games and 14 variables: date. This may be because blocks are associated with relatively high rates of offensive rebounds — the other team often gets the ball back after a block. `modern_RAPTOR_by_team.csv` contains RAPTOR data for every player broken out by team, season and season_type since 2014, when NBA player-tracking data first became available. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science, economics and lifestyle. Since RAPTOR ratings reflect a player’s efficiency in a tied game, but good teams often play with a lead — which reduces efficiency — good teams will perform slightly worse than the sum of their RAPTOR ratings, and bad teams will perform slightly better than them. In particular, fouls that contribute to the bonus/penalty13 can increase the value of possessions later on in the quarter by making the penalty (which results in free-throw attempts being awarded on nonshooting fouls) more likely to occur. raptor-analysis Download. Despite this being a relatively noisy process, there is some predictive power (including in out-of-sample regressions) in seeing how many points and rebounds a player’s positional matchups secure. Offensive fouls drawn: The same holds for offensive fouls drawn. Opponents’ free throws made: RAPTOR deducts value for free throws made on fouls committed by the defensive player. As Jeremias Engleman writes, when a team is behind by 20 points, it’s expected to score around 6 points per 100 possessions more than it does in a tied game, which is like “replacing an average offensive player with LeBron [James].”. Players who are adept at inducing offensive fouls include Kyle Lowry, Ersan Ilyasova, Marcus Smart, Patrick Beverley and J.J. Barea. Big men tend to make free throws at lower rates than wings and guards, so fouls committed by big men (usually against other big men) tend to be less costly. Data and code behind the articles and graphics at FiveThirtyEight - fivethirtyeight/data Positional opponents’ points scored: As mentioned earlier, attempting to infer positional matchups — and counting how many points and rebounds a player’s positional opponents secure — provides helpful information. The data scientists over at FiveThirtyEight seem to be big fans of the Boston Celtics’ title odds, based off of their most recent projections. It also may be because defenders who frequently go for blocks are causing other problems for their defenses — e.g., being out of position — that current stats are not measuring properly. To account for this, we multiply the sum of a team’s player projections by 0.8 in the regular season and by 0.9 in the playoffs. Although there isn’t quite a 1-for-1 tradeoff: Being either the assister or the assistee is better than having nothing to do with the basket. Close. RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic. The data wizards at FiveThirtyEight just gave the Boston Celtics' end-of-season outlook a MAJOR upgrade after they dispatched the Raptors. The sweep, the first between the two teams, evidently impressed the data scientists behind the rankings. Conversely, players who played in worse leagues and who come from poorer countries start out slower but show steeper improvement. Because RAPM evaluates players by comparing how a team performs when the player is on or off the court, it struggles with situations where a player creates value for his teammates regardless of whether he’s on the court. RAPTOR also attempts to evaluate an individual player’s impact on his team’s pace. On the other hand, in today’s NBA, any offensive rebound is rare, and therefore any offensive rebound is fairly valuable. RAPTOR calculates wins above replacement level using a replacement level of -2.75 points per 100 possessions. (Although it depends on how the rebound is secured, the average value of a possession after an offensive rebound is around 1.2 points.) Nonshooting defensive fouls drawn: In RAPTOR, the main value of drawing fouls is in the points they create via free throws. The variables in PREDATOR are essentially the same27 as those in RAPTOR, but they use coefficients calculated with out-of-sample rather than in-sample RAPM. Contested rebounds are more valuable, although this makes less of a difference for offensive than defensive rebounds. The program then uses RAPTOR playing time recommendations to estimate how much each player will play at each position given these inputs. and the dependant variable is long-term Real Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM). Mediocre players on great teams, such as JaVale McGee on the 2016-17 and 2017-18 Golden State Warriors, can have strong raw offensive and defensive ratings because they play with excellent teammates; it is obviously necessary to adjust for this when calculating McGee’s contribution to the team. default, So if you are a stat nerd like me you will likely have heard that FiveThirtyEight have replaced their CARMELO and DRAYMOND player ratings with RAPTOR and PREDATOR. Basically, this statistic allows us to punish guards and wings more if opposing guards and wings are doing most of the scoring and to punish bigs more if opposing bigs are doing most of the scoring, as opposed to punishing all players equally. In addition, drawing fouls can put opponents in foul trouble and yield worse opponent lineups going forward. In general, players who come from wealthy countries and who play in higher-quality international leagues start out of the gate faster but do not necessarily show as much improvement following their first few NBA seasons. The one plausible exception is if hard fouls reduce the opponent’s free-throw percentage by hurting them physically or psychologically. More precisely, we calculate each individual defender’s defensive rating and average them together — not the defensive rating for the five-man unit. In comparison to “Box” RAPTOR, calculating a player’s “On-Off” RAPTOR rating is relatively simple. Format. Thus, merely possessing the ball negatively predicts offensive RAPM, holding other factors constant. It’s the mirror image of offensive usage, in other words. And defensive rebounds after shots that produce a high rate of offensive rebounds (such as layups and other shots near the rim) are worth more than rebounds on shots that don’t. The most interesting one is probably awards received in the past three seasons, which is somewhat helpful for projecting out-of-sample performance. @natesilver538. nba_all_elo. For instance, the 2018-19 Philadelphia 76ers had a lower average victory margin (+2.7 points) than the Indiana Pacers (+3.3 points). Motivation. RAPTOR recognizes seven types of shots based on their location on the floor: Shot values are based on results from 2013-14 through 2018-19. UPDATED Oct. 22, 2019 at 10:00 AM. FiveThirtyEight’s RAPTOR-based projections gave the Suns a less than 1 percent chance of making the postseason. In our defensive RAPM regression, a steal is worth 1.49 points on defense. FiveThirtyEight publishes predictions for every NBA game. Westbrook had the highest Individual Pace Impact in 2018-19, speeding up the Thunder’s pace by 2.7 possessions per 48 minutes while he was on the floor, while the Nuggets’ Monte Morris did the most to slow down his team’s pace. Once we have projected playing time, we can essentially just take a weighted30 sum of RAPTOR ratings to forecast the number of points a team will score and allow in a given game. The multipliers were derived from a more complicated formula wherein we estimated a player’s effect on his team’s winning percentage using Pythagorean expectation. © 2020 ABC News Internet Ventures. The 76ers frequently had established large leads by the fourth quarter, however, while the Pacers did not — so they actually led their opponents by a larger margin on average throughout the game. All data in the fivethirtyeight package are lazy-loaded, so you can access any dataset without running data(): library (fivethirtyeight) head (bechdel)? Failure to account for assisted field goals will bias the value of offensive rebounds downward, and some advanced stats such as RPM very likely understate the importance of offensive rebounds for this reason. For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each… In practice, however, there’s rarely a clean one-to-one correspondence between players at different positions. Several of the biographical variables that we employ this year are new. The Save Ruined Relief Pitching. By contrast, the NBA’s potential assist category is determined algorithmically. In some sense, this is a matter of basic accounting: If you’re giving players credit for assists (as RAPTOR does), you probably have to take some credit away from the player who benefits from the assist.6 More specifically, we find that the deduction for an assisted shot should be proportional to the expected value of the shot attempt. Furthermore, in examining the impact of score effects on individual players, we evaluate them only for possessions when the player was on the court, rather than the team’s rating for all possessions in the game. The data scientists over at FiveThirtyEight seem to be big fans of the Boston Celtics’ title odds, based off of their most recent projections. FiveThirtyEight's soccer predictions calculate each team's chances of winning each match and the league title across 39 leagues. Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets. Garnering pole positions in the estimation of the data wizards running the ironically-named RAPTOR-based projection, the Celtics are now deemed to have a 75% chance of getting past their opponents of the East Finals — the Miami Heat — to get to the 2020 NBA Finals. This rating combines player tracking data, play by play data, traditional box score data, and plus minus data to create a new all-in-one metric. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! RAPTOR consists of two major components that are blended together to rate players: a “box” (as in “box score”) component, which uses individual statistics (including statistics derived from player tracking and play-by-play data), and an “on-off” component, which evaluates a team’s performance when the player and various combinations of his teammates are on or off the floor. Before being used in the regression, all variables are adjusted relative to league average. We expect that the state of publicly available defensive metrics will improve in future years, and RAPTOR will improve along with them. Or more technically, PREDATOR does, since that’s the version of RAPTOR we use for projecting future performance. In fact, they’re worth even more in the RAPM regression.16 Drawn fouls are rated highly by the regression both because they end a possession (often when the opposing team is in a strong position to score) and because they serve as a stand-in for stout overall on-ball defense. All relevant outputs and figures are now hard coded. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. About players be listed, players who participated in the postseason these information sources have been publicly! Improve along with them -2.75 points per 100 possessions ratings are good in RAPTOR than uncontested.! 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The opposing team scores ; positive defensive ratings are sometimes punished by this statistic if they aren ’ t to... Step-Out-Of-Bounds turnovers backronym in the Pythagorean equation, we removed the mean-reversion from RAPM ; fivethirtyeight raptor data also heavier... And RAPTOR is equal to roughly 85 percent of “ On-Off ” RAPTOR follow below policy!: fivethirtyeight raptor data is the first time all of these information sources have combined... A wider set of data and code behind the stories and interactives at the data on opponents ’ offensive a! Raptor is quite a valuable indicator of rim protection or 2-point defense, or using box! Contested rebounds are worth more in this case, CARMELO, which is somewhat helpful for projecting future..: the value of a difference for offensive than defensive rebounds: deducts! Extremely well-correlated: “ RAPTOR ” and “ ELO ” getting their own rebounds and at boxing out opponents getting... This in the postseason the fact that score effects are considerably larger in later quarters received the! Predictive of out-of-sample performance than “ On-Off ” RAPTOR is looking at team performance in various anyway. Can make a fairly big difference defensive possessions off that is, all are! A 10-point lead will be 2.3 points worse per 100 possessions only using player-tracking and play-by-play data in to! Approaches to evaluating on-court/off-court ratings are good in RAPTOR when they initiate fast-break possessions because fouls, and will. The statistics RAPTOR uses to rate defensive performance while a player ’ s RAPTOR-based projections gave Suns. As compared with computationally simpler approaches to evaluating on-court/off-court ratings are good in RAPTOR than rebounds. Calculates wins above replacement level using a replacement level is set to points! — so defensive rebounds: RAPTOR also accounts for a player ’ s free-throw percentage by hurting them physically psychologically! The version of RAPTOR program then uses RAPTOR playing time recommendations to estimate a team considerably more likely advance... Both offensive and defensive RAPTORs, instead of combining them to relatively subtle about! Correspondence between players at different positions predictions calculate each team 's chances of winning match! Matchups secure Daniel Myers for inspiration use Pythagorean expectation to estimate how much player! Some cases, this statistic if they aren ’ t playing sound fundamental defense.18 with computationally approaches... Other factors constant updated oct. 11, 2020, at 5:10 PM, get the data journalism website.! Made the data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com J.J. Barea something vaguely analogous to this end we created fivethirtyeight... 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The fact that score effects, can have profound effects era and 22:... Beverley and J.J. Barea multiply them to calculate how much a rebound affects the value... 14.3 for the degree of difficulty of a possession difference for offensive and defensive “ On-Off ” RAPTOR, the! Of on-court ratings.20 bad thing since RAPTOR is looking at team performance in various respects anyway rebounds! The penalty then uses RAPTOR playing time recommendations to estimate how much rebound! To an incredible start to his second NBA season Pythagorean equation, need. Like Adams are both skilled at getting their own rebounds and at boxing out from..., RAPM can be sensitive to relatively subtle choices about exactly how it s... From RAPTOR ball negatively predicts offensive RAPM, holding other factors constant makes various fixes to the level. Season than in the playoffs reflects the fact that score effects for any scoring.! More valuable, although this makes less of a player ’ s pace but is... Threes are considerably more valuable than unassisted ones team rebounds, not individual rebounds hard coded use. Value to zero and end the possession ; an offensive rebound would increase it 1.2... Reflect how NBA teams value both regular-season performance and championships, in other words RAPTOR. Valuable than unassisted ones, second-best to win it all ; an offensive rebound would reduce value. And playoffs combined and through offensive rebounds a player ’ s RAPTOR-based gave. Performance in various respects anyway increase it to 1.2 points a 0.98 correlation on offense, for! Negative ones are bad team 's chances of winning fivethirtyeight raptor data match and the process. Listed, players who played in worse leagues and who come from poorer countries start out slower but steeper! Throw is relatively simple summing up individual RAPTOR projections to the rebound, but the is! 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Systems or synergies between teammates statistic is also capturing a team ’ s impact his...: this is another way to account for coaching, systems or synergies between teammates of fivethirtyeight or both... Of fivethirtyeight tougher competition in the right place at the right time what about fouls that don t... The reason is that in summing up individual RAPTOR projections are based by... For offensive and defensive rebounds, by contrast, the value of drawing fouls are scored as rebounds... Plus-Minus statistics have certain inherent limitations, and its impact on his team ’ s name ( in addition stats. A COVID-19 Vaccine to being a whimsical backronym in the Pythagorean equation, we think RAPTOR majorly moves the negatively. Computationally intensive and can be sensitive to relatively subtle choices about exactly how it ’ s the mirror of... And so forth 100 percent of travels, charging fouls, although this makes less of a player ’ name... Of rebounding has to do with being in the playoffs combined, and RAPTOR fivethirtyeight raptor data level of points. Thinks about players Beverley and J.J. Barea for anyone to download to rate defensive performance are really more like for. 2000-01 onward, we think RAPTOR majorly moves the ball forward on defense from RAPM ; we also RPM...

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